A maximum credible event is one that could cause a large loss of life in addition to disruption, panic, and overwhelming use of civilian health care resources. This possibility brings about an attempt to evaluate and discuss substances that could be used as agents of biological warfare or as weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
An agent considered capable of causing a maximum credible event is highly lethal, inexpensively and easily produced in large quantities, stable in aerosol form, and can be dispersed. The ideal agent is also communicable from person to person and has no treatment or vaccine.
Ricin is a potent toxin that could be used as an agent of biological warfare or as a WMD. Derived from the beans of the castor plant (Ricinus communis), Ricin is native to Africa and common in warm climates worldwide. More than 1 million tons of castor beans are processed every year worldwide. It is easily and inexpensively produced, is highly toxic, and is stable in aerosolized form. Ricin has no treatment or vaccine, but it is not communicable from person to person.
Although a large amount of ricin would be necessary to produce many casualties, it would be highly effective within a closed environment. Ricin can be disseminated as an aerosol, by injection, or as a food and water contaminant. Its use as a food and water contaminant is a major concern. If ricin were used in that fashion, resultant deaths could overwhelm local health care resources.
Even use without casualties can be disruptive. Three US Senate office buildings closed on February 3, 2004, after ricin was found in the mailroom that serves Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist’s office. No injuries were reported.
From 1991-1997, 3 cases involving ricin were reported in the United States.
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